The Forestry Agency made public of its short-term estimate on major timber supply and demand for the fourth quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003 in Japan. With a downward expectation of new home building, supply and demand of timber from most of the sources to Japan will decline, except for European lumber and laminated lumber. Demand for Japanese logs to be sawn will drop 5.6% in the fourth quarter against the pace a year ago and 1% in the first quarter. The annual demands for 2002 will smaller by 5.6% from the previous year to 11.02 million cubic meters. American logs will be less demanded by 5.8% in the forth quarter, but will increase by 13.5% in the first quarter. And supply will reflect the demand, to be smaller 0.9% in the former but to be larger 8.1% in the latter. The total demand for 2002 will be 3.58 million cubic meters, a wane of 11% from the previous year's record. Diminishing construction of owner-occupied houses will cause smaller demand for American lumber in both quarters by 4.6% and 1.5%. And the annual demand for the year will shrink substantially by 14.3% to 3.06 million cubic meters. Accordingly the annual supply of 2.94 million cubic meters will retreat the year-ago level by 16.4%. While other species are lowering with the slow home building, supply of European KD lumber, of which quality is appreciated as stable, is expected to enlarge by 8.5% and 18.4%. But the overall supply for the year is estimated to reduce by 4.1% to 2.19 million cubic meters. Demand for Southsea logs to be sawn will slump by 25% in October-December 2002 and by 13% in January-March 2003 for the reason of short supply of good quality logs and resources areas' intention to export more processed wood instead of raw materials. Southsea logs for plywood usage will be less demanded by 4.5% and be a little larger by 0.2%, due to shrunk market for plywood and material shift toward softwood. The demand for 2002 will total 1.86 million cubic meters, a fall of 15.5%. The annual supply will lessen by 9.3% to 1.81 million cubic meters. The Japanese market will require 0.78 million cubic meters of imported Southsea lumber during 2002, less 11.1% against a year ago, and will be provided with 0.76 million cubic meters, a decrease of 14.4%. It is forecast that annual demand will be 120,000 cubic meters for African logs and supply be 10,000 cubic meters for 2002. With requests from plywood manufacturers, Russian logs will be demanded more 8.1% and 14.5% in the fourth and the first quarters, but the annual total for 2002 will be 4.86 million cubic meters, a 3.8% off. Supply in the two quarters will both enlarge against the year-ago pace. The supply for 2002 is forecast to decline by 7.7% to 4.62 million cubic meters. Reflecting the Russia's intention to supply sawn lumber, the Japanese market will be provided with a larger volume of 18.1% in the forth quarter and 7.6% in the first quarter. The annual supply for 2002 will expand 16.8% to 0.68 million cubic meters. New Zealand and Chilean logs will expect larger market in both quarters, by 5.7% and 9.4%, although the year of 2002 will find a shrinkage of 10.8% to 1.44 million cubic meters. And so will their supply be larger by 11.3% in the forth and by 5.2% in the first quarter, but be smaller for the annual result of the year by 11.4% to 1.4 million cubic meters. Demand for New Zealand and Chilean lumber will go down due to the depressed market of packing materials, by 7.1% and by 13% in the two quarters. It will be annually demanded with 0.53 million cubic meters, a plump of 16.3%. A smaller supply of 9.4% is expected in the forth quarter, but it will rise in the first quarter by 8.1%. The annual supply for 2002 is expected to be 0.49 million cubic meters, a drop of 21.9%. Whole demand for plywood (home and imported products) will slump by 20.6% and 18.7% during the both quarters, and supply will be slower by 0.5% and 1.9%. The overall demand for the year of 7.57 million cubic meters will retreat the year ago by 3.3%, and the annual supply of 7.4 million cubic meters will show a decrease of 5%. As users are satisfied with its stable quality and performance, structural laminated lumber is expected to continue to expand its supply by 7% during October-December 2002 and 6.6% during January-March 2003. Total supply (domestic production and imports) for 2002 is estimated to enlarge 10.7% to 1.42 million cubic meters.